Bihar votes, Bengal Waits: Is anti-incumbancy still alive? Bihar's verdict echoes in Bengal, but Not in the way many expects...
The clean sweep return of the BJP and the Nitish Kumar–led NDA in Bihar gives a much-needed stress-buster to the Bengal BJP before the high-voltage 2026 Assembly Election in West Bengal. After the massive defeat—despite huge expectations—in the 2021 Bengal elections, the BJP continued weakening in the state. MLAs and leaders kept flying to the ruling side; their Lok Sabha constituencies reduced from 18 to 12; and they kept losing subsequent by-elections. So, quite unexpectedly, the neighbouring state’s landslide victory will serve as an enormous morale boost to Bengal BJP leaders and workers ahead of the polls.
But here comes the more crucial point for discussion—does the opposition even hold significance among common people anymore?
Post the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, where the BJP-led NDA managed just enough seats to form the government, they have lost only two Assembly elections—Jharkhand and Jammu & Kashmir. They remained in power in most cases except Delhi, where the BJP defeated the Aam Aadmi Party to form the government.
And this raises the most important question—is the anti-incumbency factor gradually dying? It was expected that several states, including Maharashtra and Bihar, would witness tight contests. Yet, everywhere except Jharkhand, the BJP successfully swept aside public dissatisfaction with the ruling governments, pushing anti-incumbency towards becoming a term relevant only in political science textbooks.
This is exactly where the Bengal BJP must start thinking seriously—people are resisting change, and that seems to be the trend. With ample offerings of freebies targeting specific communities or genders, it is evident from demographic results that the masses are unwilling to embrace political transition, whether they are suffering or not. (Some may argue using the Delhi Assembly results, but to consider Delhi comparable to states like West Bengal, Bihar, or even Maharashtra—does Delhi truly belong to the same category? I doubt it.) The fear of instability under a new ruling party and government is a psychology that possibly prevails in many minds.
This “let the chips fall where they may” mindset could become a troublesome factor for the BJP in West Bengal—and this is exactly why the TMC can sigh in relief despite the BJP’s powerful show in the neighbouring state. It is clear from the past year’s elections' trends that West Bengal too will decide its ruler largely based on the majority of female votes (unlike Bihar, where still a big portion of the mass votes on caste proportion) or, more precisely, on whom Bengali womanhood will trust for their welfare benefits. It might sound rude or harsh, but the truth is what it is. On this scale, the ruling TMC currently leads in credibility due to the common rural narrative: "At least they provide something."
The BJP’s challenge is to break this dependency and build an image of trustworthiness among the rural masses. However, with only a few months remaining, an ongoing war-like SIR process, and possibly their weakest organisational strength among all election-bound states, this task becomes extremely difficult.
But remember the double-edged sword? It cuts both ways.
The repeated issues regarding law and order—especially women’s safety—have a huge chance of demolishing this trust bank among rural voters. Incidents like RG Kar, Kasba Law College, and Durgapur Medical College—though not directly linked to village life—are highly likely to influence a portion of the electorate. Add to this the ever-present anti-incumbency sentiment: no other state that has gone to polls—or will go to polls along with West Bengal—has witnessed so many issues and incidents stacked against the ruling party, from lawlessness to corruption, scams and scandals, riots, and more.
And that’s where the sword fight truly begins.
The concept of anti-incumbency has its final frontier to prove its relevance in the 2026 election—its existential crisis running parallel with that of the Bengal BJP.
~ Anurag Banerjee
